On Wednesday, government ministers from nearly 200 countries reached an agreement to shift away from fossil fuels, following widespread criticism of a previous proposal. The UAE Consensus, marked by an unprecedented commitment to transition from all fossil fuels, is seen as a groundbreaking move with the potential to reshape global economies. The conference held in Dubai faced controversy, geopolitical tensions, and escalating extreme weather events over the past two weeks.
The UAE summit presidency highlighted the achievement of several world-firsts, including a global goal to triple renewables and double energy efficiency. The updated proposal, agreed upon after extensive overnight discussions, emphasizes a just and orderly transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems. The aim is to accelerate actions in the current decade, leading to achieving net-zero emissions by 2050 in alignment with scientific recommendations.
The draft deal text encourages efforts to phase down unabated coal power, triple global renewable energy capacity, and double the annual rate of energy efficiency improvements by 2030. Importantly, the proposal does not mandate an absolute phase-out of hydrocarbons.
A commitment to “phase-out” would have implied a complete shift away from fossil fuels until their use is entirely eliminated, whereas a “phase-down” agreement indicates a reduction in their use without an absolute end.
The success of the COP28 summit was widely seen as contingent on a deal to phase out all fossil fuels, a sentiment expressed by many, including 12-year-old climate activist Licypriya Kangujam. On Monday, she interrupted a presidency event with a sign reading “End fossil fuel. Save our planet and our future.”
Burning coal, oil, and gas is the largest contributor to climate change, responsible for over three-quarters of global greenhouse gas emissions.
The Wednesday announcement followed criticism of a previous draft text that lacked language on ending the use of fossil fuels, revealing deep divisions among policymakers on the future of hydrocarbons.
The Monday proposal suggested various options for countries to accelerate climate action but crucially omitted language regarding a phase-out or phase-down of fossil fuels. Intensive negotiations ensued, with Wopke Hoekstra, EU commissioner for climate action, describing the talks as having “various phases of hope, sometimes also of despair.”
Alok Sharma, the U.K.’s COP26 president, emphasized on Tuesday that only a deal with “very clear” language on the phase-out of fossil fuels and a credible plan to achieve it would be deemed satisfactory to maintain the prospect of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. This temperature threshold, established in the 2015 Paris Agreement, is crucial as it is recognized for preventing likely tipping points beyond this level.
Sharma warned of grave consequences if an agreement on this language was not reached, underscoring the significance of addressing the urgent climate crisis.
The beginning of the end
Discussions persisted well into the early hours of Wednesday, with the last 48 hours of talks deemed crucial, as conveyed by a summit delegate who spoke anonymously due to the sensitivity of the matter. Reactions to the deal reached on Wednesday have generally been positive.
“While we didn’t close the chapter on the fossil fuel era in Dubai, this outcome marks the commencement of its conclusion,” stated U.N. climate chief Simon Stiell, recognizing, “We’re currently on track for just under 3 degrees, which still translates to widespread human suffering. This underscores why COP28 needed to push the needle further. The global stocktake unequivocally revealed that progress is not swift enough, but it is undeniably gaining momentum.”
The COP agreement endorsed on Wednesday “sends very potent messages to the world,” remarked U.S. special climate envoy John Kerry. “Today, I would join with the Chinese delegation in announcing that the United States and China… based on the numerous initiatives outlined in the global stocktake decisions, we will once again update our long-term strategies, and we invite other parties to join us in doing so.”
He did not immediately reveal the specifics of these adjustments in strategy.
Despite the summit decision’s omission of a phase-out commitment, not all feedback was positive.
“We’re very disappointed about this deal. We hoped that this COP could be, and we were fighting for, the end of the fossil era, and we do not see that delivered in this text,” expressed Selma de Montgomery, a climate justice activist from Denmark.
Avinash Persaud, the special climate envoy of Barbados, advocated for pragmatic ambition, emphasizing the need to bring everyone along. He stated, “The road to fossil fuel phase-out lies first through massive financial flows for a huge investment in renewables.”
“It was a compromise. We are not happy, but we all agree,” remarked Russian Federation delegate Mikhail Gitarskiy. Moscow, heavily reliant on hydrocarbon revenues, consistently opposed a fossil fuel phase-out throughout the negotiations.
How did the talks unfold?
COP28 President Sultan al-Jaber faced criticism earlier this month when he stated that there is “no science” behind calls for a phase-out of fossil fuels. This came after a BBC report suggested that UAE officials were using their host status to promote oil and gas deals. A COP28 spokesperson labeled the documents referenced in the BBC article as “inaccurate.” Al-Jaber, who also serves as the head of the state-run Abu Dhabi National Oil Co., clarified last week that his team respects the science and expressed surprise at attempts to undermine the COP28 presidency’s work.
Al-Jaber’s appointment as the leader of COP28 discussions in Dubai was controversial due to his association with the state-run oil company.
On November 30, COP28 delegates initiated proceedings with the sealing of a groundbreaking deal to assist the world’s most vulnerable countries in dealing with the impacts of climate disasters. The operationalization of the loss and damage fund received a standing ovation, marking a historic agreement that facilitated progress in negotiations on other significant issues.
Following this, numerous announcements aimed at decarbonizing the energy sector emerged, including commitments from nearly 120 governments to triple renewable energy capacity by 2030. Additional initiatives launched at the conference included substantial commitments to expand nuclear power and reduce methane emissions.
